Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Menace Mashup 2016: Week 13

It's the most wonderful time of the year!  It's the time of giving, spending time with family, singing carols, drinking egg nog, and most importantly...

...computing 1,001 different playoff scenarios in your head!

My goodness, the tension in the air is so think you can cut it with a butter knife, and I say that at least in part because I am very much in the thick of it!  But fear not, faithful followers of the fantasy schadenfreude.  We have you completely covered here at the mashup.  However, before we get to the main course, let's bid a final farewell to those who will most certainly NOT be participating in the playoff party.  

JP-As if this comes as any surprise.  JP has spent pretty much the entire season in the basement, not exactly a place of prominence for a defending champ.  Heck he even had his own weekly Mashup item revoked.  Yet, amazingly, there is still a chance for him to not complete the worst-to-first-to-worst trifecta.  There is, however, no chance he can finish higher than 11th.  

Tom-After a 2-1 start, Tom lost 9 of his next 10 games.  Ouch.  No waiver wire explosions on change-of-pace backs this year would save him, no matter how much he wanted to spend.  Amazingly, if Tom loses in Week 14, and JP wins by a large enough margin, Tom could, against all odds, surpass JP for worst record in the league and #1 pick in the draft.  

Jeff-Jeff's highlight of the season was a Week 1 screed about bonuses, as is his usual, and a Week 6 pancake job over the commish.  Other than that, not really much to write home about this year as Jeff will once again have a top-half-of the draft pick.  

Sean-Not a good season for recent defending champs as Sean was playing hopscotch with JP in the basement for most of the season.  While Sean is 5-3 in his last 8 games, an 0-5 start to the regular season is nearly impossible to recover from.  

Nate-When Nate defeated JP in Week 1, at the time it seemed like his coming out party, a statement win that would propel him to great things in this great league.  But alas, that was the day the music died, as Nate couldn't get it out of 3rd gear, and decided to plan for the future at the trade deadline.  

Eddie- Eddie is eliminated this week (sorry Ed).  Even if his dream scenario of a 4-way tie at 8-6 were to occur, he would be out because Kent would win the 4-way tiebreaker having a 2-0 record against the other 8-6 teams.  

Everybody else has at least some sort of mathematical chance to make the playoffs.  Let's get to our featured recaps.  

How did the current leader do?  Congratulations to Patrick, who has clinched a playoff berth for the first time since he won the title in 2012.  While we at the mashup have consistently questioned his methods by rostering Redskins to the point where he wondered whether or not he owned stock in the team, he used strategic starting of said Redskins to the point where he could very well enter the playoffs as the overall #1 seed.  This week a (yet again) injured Jordan Reed had to ride the bench but Aaron Rodgers picked up the slack in the snow in Lambeau with 18 points, one of 7 starters to crack double digits, to lead Patrick to a 119-93 win over Jeff.  Keeping true to form, Patrick just could not resist starting Vernon Davis, making it every single week this season yet again that Patrick has started at least one Washington Redskin since the beginning of the year.  

Game of the Week In a clash between 2 teams in contention for one of the two wild card spots, Zach was able to overcome a total dud from Drew Brees to score a 124-113 win over Kent.  Jordan Howard picked up the slack in the schmootz in Chicago, plowing through whatever was falling out of the sky there to rack up 31 points.  He was flanked by 20 point performances by Travis Kelce and Melvin Gordon to lead the way to 8-4, and full control of his own destiny.  A win over Patrick in Week 14 would give him the season sweep, and would swoop Zach into the #1 seed if Dewey loses next week and he can pass him on points.  As for Kent, he's not out of it yet, but he will need a win over Chris in Week 14 and get some help from a source who very much does not want to give it to him.......

Blowout of the Week Congratulations to Dewey who not only clinches the first playoff berth of his career at MIISFFL, thanks to his 135-40 win over Nate, but also wins the NFC outright, no matter what happens in Week 14.  Yes folks, you saw that right, he won 135-40!  Nate is building for the future, but the team he put together this week did not put up much of a fight at all.  Dewey said thank you very much behind his duo of Cowgirls Zeke Elliot and Diva Dez Bryant, combining for nearly 35 points on Thursday night in Minnesota.  Dewey must read the Mashup and study it carefully, because while he was floundering in the middle of the season, he was placing too much importance in the placement of Buccaneers in his starting lineup.  Ever since he started this 6-game winning streak, he has taken his foot off the Buccaneer gas, only starting the defense this week.  This comes all during the Bucs recent resurgence to the top of the NFC South standings to boot.  A win next week would guarantee the #1 seed in the playoffs.  

The Futility Bowl  Incredibly, Chris wins yet another Futility Bowl (what is this now 4?).  Pure luck has Chris at 8-5, in what definitely is the worst statistical season of his MIISFFL career, he is still on the brink of another playoff berth, if he can get a win over Kent next week.  Chris has taken advantage of fortunate scheduling and catching teams on their off weeks, or just having mailed it in all together.  This week, he scores an 86-59 win over Tom, who may have had a chance to catch him on Monday night with a big performance from the Jets defense, who ended up petering out in more ways than one with a -1 score.  I would love to see the all-play standings for Chris this season, as all he needs is one more win next week to lock up the #4 seed.  

Bonus Recap Because of the playoff potentials here, yes I am giving myself a recap this week.  And did I mention that I also won my 3rd weekly pot?  No I didn't so I'm going to mention it again.  I won the weekly pot for the 3rd time this year.  Ha!   A lot of good it will do me if I don't win next week and get Chris to lose.  Meanwhile, my 149-93 win over Eddie puts his season on life support, and doctor's about to pull the plug.  In order for Eddie to make the playoffs, he would need a win, he would need Kent to win, and he would need to outscore Kent by 120 points.  Not gonna happen.  

This week's other result (no recap necessary, no playoff implications):
Sean (4-9) defeated JP (2-11) 121-104
Weekly Pot Winner: Nick (149 points)

MIISFFL PLAYOFF PICTURE:

Let's take a look at the playoff picture.  So far, 2 teams have already clinched playoff spots: Dewey is locked in as the NFC champ and can be no worse than the 2 seed; Patrick has clinched at least a wild card.  If the season ended right now:

#1 Patrick (10-3 AFC) and #2 Dewey (10-3 NFC)

Patrick gets the #1 seed because of his win over Dewey in Week 4

#3 Zach (9-4) and #4 Chris (8-5)

Chris gets the #4 seed over Nick because of his head-to-head Futility Bowl win over Nick in Week 9.

So the playoff matchups would be:

#1 Patrick vs. #4 Chris
#2 Dewey vs. #3 Zach

Now in Week 14, here are the scenarios.  There are quite a few so if you think I missed one let me know:

Chris makes the playoff with a win.

Nick needs to win, and have Kent defeat Chris to claim the #4 seed, and has a very outside chance of claiming the #3 seed (see below).  

Kent makes the playoffs with a win over Chris and Nick losing to Sean, as he would win the 3-way tiebreaker with a 2-0 record against 3 8-6 teams.  He ALSO makes it in the 4-way scenario, even if Eddie were to win because, again, of the 2-0 record against the teams.  So Kent is in with a win and a Nick loss.    

Zach can claim the #1 seed with a win, a Dewey loss, and also catching Dewey in points.  That is very possible since Dewey is currently only 8 points ahead of Zach.  

On the other hand, If Zach loses, Chris wins and Nick loses, Zach would be #3 seed as both teams would be 9-5 and Chris wins the divisional record tiebreaker.  

Finally, if Zach loses, Chris wins, AND Nick somehow wins to get to 9-5.  We would have a 3-way tie for 2 playoff spots at 9-5.  Here, Chris would get the #3 seed because of the 2-1 record against these 3 teams.  The 4th and final playoff spot would come down to Zach and Nick, and since they did not play each other, it would come down to points, where Zach currently has a 52 point advantage.  If Nick wins by at least that much over Sean (entirely possible), he could still earn the #4 seed.  

If Chris loses, and Zach and Nick both win, they would both make it at 9-5, and if Nick outscores Zach by the prescribed 52 points, he would be the #3 seed.  

So bottom line is Zach would need a minor-miraculous cataclysm to miss the playoffs.  He would need to lose, for Nick to win, and for Nick to outscore him by more than 52 points.  

I think that just about covers it.  If I have other updates, I'll give them throughout the week.  


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