Most of you probably know by now that the Space Shuttle has flown its last mission. Caputo's Corner reader Jeff Newman was fortunate enough to be at the launch site for the beginning of STS-135 and watch Atlantis blast off one final time. We here at Caputo's Corner have mused quite a bit on the future of the Space Program after the retirement of the shuttle. George Bush's grandiose plan to be back on the moon by 2020 and Mars by 2030 had absolutely no merit. It was nothing more than a propaganda ploy to get people excited about space again after the Columbia accident in 2003, and gain public acceptance for the inevitable end of the Shuttle program (an end that was supposed to come in 2009 but kept getting delayed). Fortunately, we were able to also get one more Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission. Unfortunately, that tin can is set to expire at the end of 2014 (not because it will stop working, but because we don't want to pay for it anymore...mistake?) and the replacement (the James Webb Space Telescope) is now targeted for launch sometime around 2020. Wouldn't it have been nice to have Hubble and Webb up there at the same time for just a little while...**sigh**...but I digress.
You might be wondering what the "Branson Effect" is. Branson refers to Richard Branson, CEO of Virgin Corp. Branson was part of the team that funded the SpaceShipOne project in 2004 that won the X-prize for being the first privately funded spacecraft. Sure he wasn't the only one on the team (Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen actually supplied most of the $$$ for the project), but if you know who Richard Branson is, you know that he has somewhat of an outlandish personality...so I chose his name for this "effect." The Branson Effect is essentially the intrusion of the private sector into space exploration. From the beginnings of NASA in 1958 until 2004, space had solely been a government/public venture. Now, before AK gets all up in a tizzy saying that I am supporting bigger, stronger government, I have always been a supporter of government spending on space exploration and the continuation of NASA (and other science agencies). It cost about $100 million for SpaceShipOne to reach suborbital flight. The X-prize was only $10 million. Space is not cheap folks. However, I believe it is a worthwhile investment. Unfortunately, because people in Washington can't spend money in the right places (coughcough**stimulus**coughcough**bailouts**coughcough), the future of the space program in American is in doubt. We were supposed to have a smooth transition from the Shuttle to whatever its successor program was going to be (in 2005 it was supposed to be the CEV, but now that's a pipe dream). As a result, if Americans are going to go to space (for at least the foreseeable future), we need to hitch rides with the Russians or resort to private enterprises such as Branson. It looks like the latter is what NASA is going after. Thanks to Caputo's Corner reader Ron for finding this interesting piece. Not only are private spacecraft simply getting to space, now they are docking with the International Space Station! It makes sense, doesn't it. The whole purpose of the Shuttle in the last 6 years (save one mission to Hubble) was to complete construction of the Station and keep it supplied, knowing full well that the Shuttle was going to retire and there was no replacement in sight. Now, thanks to the Branson Effect, NASA is relying on the private sector for keeping the ISS stocked. Atlantis' final mission carried more cargo than a normal Shuttle-ISS mission would (only carrying 4 astronauts on board), but not as much as was originally planned because NASA now plans to use these private vehicles to do the job that the Shuttle once did.
This could very well be a reliable short-term solution. It might not be either. The bottom line is that we don't know for certain if these vehicles can withstand the forces (both physical and budgetary) of getting from the ground to 252 statute miles in altitude. If they can, then more power to them...we'll put them to good use. The nice thing about NASA vehicles though is that we KNOW that they have been quality controlled. We KNOW that they are going to work. Have there been failures? Yes...there have been 2, and they were both catastrophic. I'm not convinced that these private vehicles can meet NASA quality control standards for manned and unmanned space flight. I guess if I'm wrong I'll be pleasantly surprised, but it still doesn't solve the issue of getting people back up there without bumming rides from Russia. President Obama, if you're reading, and I know you are, please take some of this money away from TARP and give it to NASA so we can get the CEV (or whatever that thing ends up being called) off the ground and back into orbit.
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