Friday, October 28, 2011

Nick's Picks: NFL Week 8

Last Week:

Me: 8-4 (54-43 overall)
AK: 10-3 (52-21)
Lattanzi (back from the dead): 10-3 (54-23)

As I settle in back at the command center after an outstanding couple days at North Bay, I watch the skies darken as we get ready for the white stuff before Halloween.  Snow before Thanksgiving is crazy enough, but before Halloween...yikes!  In any event, if you have to be anywhere tomorrow, be careful.  Down here we should be OK (SHOULD), but always be wary of slick roads and slush. 

Onto the featured part of our program, we would like to welcome Josh back to the fold after a week long hiatus.  I hope the respite was refreshing and reinvigorating.  I have 43 losses...don't worry, you still have half a season to catch up to that.  Let's get to the picks. 

Arizona @ Baltimore-Last week, we all thought Baltimore would decimate an inferior Jacksonville team.  4 mammoth field goals by Josh Scobee later, Baltimore leaves embarassed.  Do you really think they'll let that happen again this week against Arizona at home?  I didn't think so either.  However, the offense did pretty much what I though they would.  The thing is that the defense didn't lateral the ball enough.  Baltimore 22 Arizona 6
Minnesota @ Carolina-For the first time this season, last week I called a Vikings game correctly.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a trend.  Pretty bad thing for them since Cam Newton and Steve Smith will do their thing all over again this week after abusing the Skins secondary last week.  You think the Redskins have bad cover corners?  Carolina Cam is salivating at his prospects.  Carolina 30 Minnesota 21

Jacksonville @ Houston-Jacksonville is feeling pretty good about themselves.  They are fresh off of a huge upset over Baltimore.  Jack Del Rio gets to coach one more week, and Houston is still missing Andre Johnson and Mario Williams.  You know what, Tennessee felt the same way last week...and got bulldozed.  Jacksonville better keep their heads on a swivel. Houston 21 Jacksonville 7

Miami @ New York Giants-Miami is solidly in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.  What incentives do they really have to win?  None if you ask me.  So they won't.  New York Giants 28 Miami 14

New Orleans @ St. Louis-We've seen this script before.  Bad Rams team matches up with offensively superior team (or defensively superior team and suffered the same result).  New Orleans feasted on a wonded Indy team last week when Brees was pulled in the 3rd quarter.  Expect more of the same.  Now, the question is do I give New Orleans 60?  Nah, can't really predict a defensive score.  New Orleans 52 St. Louis 3

Indianapolis @ Tennessee-Indy has to win, right?  Tennessee is a big favorite, but I feel like the Colts have a lot of pride, unlike the other winless teams in the league.  They know they are the frontrunners for Andrew Luck, but if they are going to win, this is as good a week as any.  This team will not go 0-16.  Doesn't mean they'll find the end zone though.  Indianapolis 15 Tennessee 7

Detroit @ Denver-Is this the start of the inevitably Detroit slide, just in time for the rise of Tebow?  Tebow played so-so at best for 55 minutes last week against a pass rush that did not feature rule-breaker Ndamukong Suh.  Suh would certain love to feed Tebow his face mask.  As far as he's concerned, 15 yards and a $10,000 fine will be so worth it.  Detroit 27 Denver 17

New England @ Pittsburgh-Game of the week to be sure.  This one is very tough to call.  Pittsburgh has kind of been the Jekyll and Hyde team this year as they have had some pretty solid wins only to be overshadowed by really bad losses (and I mean really bad).  New England is not immune to the bad loss department.  Just ask the Buffalo Bills...I mean Toronto Argonauts.  However, at the end of the day, I feel like powerful offense will overpower stout defense.  The Pittsburgh D will eventually tire out in the 2nd half, and that's when the Pats will take over.  This game will be close for at least 3 quarters though.  New England 31 Pittsburgh 13

Cincinnati @ Seattle-Can we just agree that any game that Seattle plays will be the snoozer of the week?  Seattle is 0-1 against teams from Ohio, so I guess that trend will continue.  I thought that only the Maryland Terrapins could lose games 6-3.  Cincinnati 14 Seattle 6

Cleveland @ San Francisco-Cleveland has won a few games, but none of them have been against premier competition, so don't expect the Brownies to be world beaters on the West Coast.  The Niners have spend a lot of time in the Eastern Time Zone this year so far, so I bet they're excited to have one of these 1PM kickoff teams pay them a visit at the Stick.  San Fran rolls.  San Francisco 34 Cleveland 20

Dallas @ Philadelphia-Somewhere out there the referee will invoke a rule where both teams are assessed losses solely because he can do that.  This is one of those games that I hope that happens.  For what it's worth, I think Philly wins, and it will be fairly entertaining.  Dallas beat up on the Rams last week, but who doesn't do that?  Philadelphia 38 Dallas 28

San Diego @ Kansas City-After having been left for dead early in the season, the Chiefs have won a few all of a sudden.  San Diego will show up at Arrowhead on Monday night, smile to themselves thinking that this is a nice story, put their helmets on, and proceed to put Kansas City in its place San Diego 37 Kansas City 22

And because we can, here's a bonus pick for you...interleague style!

Washington Redskins (NFL) @ Toronto Argonauts (CFL)-In one of those rare times you get to see an NFL team match up with a CFL team, the Argos will come out strong on Sunday.  BJ Hall and Demario Ballard will be the premier hookup as DeAngelo Hall and OJ Atogwe look to stop it.  Having 2 guys going forward at the line will be at first confusing for the Skins, but Anthony Armstrong and Jabar Gaffney will eventually like the fact that they can get a 15 yard head start at the snap.  Unfortunately, John Beck will get cold feet and check everything down, Rex Grossman still has pneumonia, and the Argos will get all excited. Then the Maple Leafs game will start, Skydome...er...Rogers' Centre...will empty, the Leafs will lose again, and the Redskins will prove why the NFL is so much better than the CFL. 

3 comments:

  1. 3 locks of the week:

    IND vs TEN (-9)

    look for TEN to bounce back big at home and easily cover spread - watch for CJ to come alive and Nate Washington to produce big in this game

    WAS vs BUF (-6)

    coming off the bye week expect BUF to cover as they win by double digits over the dismembering skins QB controversy - Fred Jackson breaks the plane twice in this matchup

    CIN (-3) vs SEA

    take SEA and the points in this matchup as it promises to be a low scoring affair in which the winner wins by 1

    BONUS PICK:

    SD (-3.5) vs KC

    Bet the farm on SD as they cover and disappoint the arrowhead faithful.

    Put $5 on this 4 team parlay for a return of $55

    _ Tom Back

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  2. Arizona @ Baltimore (-12.5): Last week I picked the Ravens to win after facetiously picking against them for basically the entire season ("basically" because I didn't bother to verify whether I picked against them all seven weeks or not), and they came out and put on the worse offensive performance anyone under the age of thirty has ever seen. Joeverrated Flacco's stat line at one point was 6-15 for 8 yards, and they totaled 16 yards offensively at the half. That being said, Arizona's pretty terrible too. I'm taking Baltimore to win, but take the Cardinals and the points - how can the Ravens win by 12.5 when they can't even score that many? And for fuck's sake take the under!

    Minnesota @ Carolina (-3.5): Carolina Cam Pat Deegan'd the 'Skins last week to get his Panthers rolling, and the winning streak will continue this week. The Pondering Vikes were scrappy last week against Green Bay, so take them to keep it close, but Carolina gets two in a row.

    Jacksonville @ Houston (-9): The Texans came out and lit up Tennessee last week and now await the Jags and their tenacious D. It's difficult to tell, however, whether it was their defense or the shitty, terrible no good offense of the Ravens that was on display last Monday night. Though the Ravens are horrendous offensively, I'm leaning toward the former. Take the Texans to win, but take the big number.

    Miami @ New York Giants (-9.5): Miami has an offense that makes a Ravens fan cringe. Giants steam-roll, so lay the points.

    New Orleans (-14) @ St. Louis: Of the two frontrunners in what's being called the Andrew Luck sweepstakes (the other being Miami), St. Louis is least likely to take the Stanford signal-caller because of the presence of Sam Bradford, who in any case isn't playing. New Orleans, fresh off their classless display of an absolute lack of sportsmanship, wins easily by more than 14.

    Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-9): Without Peyton Manning (and other key guys out with injury), the Colts are a below average, ableit competitive, team. The four games they have the best chance of winning are against Jacksonville and Tennessee. They're smarting after last week's debacle in the Crescent City, and fortunately for them, Tennessee isn't very good. CJ2K is barely CJ200, Kenny Britt being lost for the season has grounded their running game, and the defense just gave up over 300 yards rushing and some 40 points to the Texans. Indy wins outright, but definitely take the points - anyone who lays 9 with the Titans is retarded. They have *no* weapons.

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  3. Detroit (-3) @ Denver: Detroit has lost two straight after a promising 5-0 start. Denver is as bad as we all thought them to be, and just got worse by naming Tim Tebow their semi-long-term starter. Don't read too much into his heroics against Miami last week - like you heard here first, it'd be a big deal if he were playing an NFL defense, but he was playing the Dolphins (and barely won, at that). This very well could be the game he gets put on the shelf. Ndamakong Suh is smarting from being accused of trash talking an injured Matt Ryan as well as general accusations of dirtiness (which may, I reluctantly admit, have some truth to them). The veracity doesn't matter - what matters is Suh is pissed and looking to tear him up some Tebow. Detroit wins and covers and return to their mile-high mentality.

    New England (-3) @ Pittsburgh: Obviously the game of the day. Not much analysis needed: Fuck those cheaters, Harrison breaks Brady's leg, Pittsburgh romps 41-10.

    Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Seattle: Another easy pick. Cincinnati quietly has one of the best defenses in the league and the most promising-looking rookie QB of the batch from this past draft in Andy Dalton (as well as the better-performing-thus-far rookie SEC study wideout in AJ Green). It is baffling, meanwhile, that Seattle has won not one but TWO games. How? Offensively they're more impotent than Tennessee. Cincy destroys them, even without Cedric Benson.

    Cleveland @ San Francisco (-8.5): I'm still skeptical about the 49ers. I feel like they're the 2006 Chicago Bears - they are who we thought they are, and teams just keep letting them off the hook. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Cleveland is the team to hook 'em, especially with Peyton Hillis unlikely to go. Look for the Niners to win but the Brownies to keep it close.

    Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3): The Sunday nighter is the second game of the day. I'm not going analysis on this one, except to say that Philly's D is absolutely terrible against the run and Demarco Murray just ripped off 250+ in his debut as a starter. My gut says the home team has an edge, but Dallas loves wearing their away jerseys (which they inexplicably wear at home). I'm taking the Cowboys to win outright.

    San Diego (-3) @ Kansas City: Who really cares? The Douchiest Player in the NFL wins at Arrowhead, so lay the points.

    Washington (Kinda) @ Buffalo (-5): The Redskins travel to the Great White North to be the rebound victory for the Bills. Buffalo lost a tough one to a good NFC East team the last time we saw them, and are celebrating that the next NFC East team isn't so formidable. Coming off the bye, Buffalo is rested and refocused. Coming off a loss at Carolina, the Redskins are several men short, including stud (a relative term - these are "studs" to the Redskins) RB Tim Hightower, WR Santa Anna Moss, and TE Chris Cooley. Take Buffalo and lay the points.

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