Redskins-Packer Preview and Game Picks

In years past, I've given more detailed analyses of the other games of the weekend, but I'm going to focus on the only game that matters quite frankly, and then I will make my game pick, and to appease Mr. K, this year I will be picking them ATS.

It's the home opener at Lambeau and both teams are 0-1.  However, the Redskins loss being far the uglier of the two, the Pack open this week as 8 point favorites as now everyone is losing faith in the Redskins offense.  Mark Schlereth on ESPN said yesterday that the Redskins biggest concern for this week is the fact that 1/3 of our playbook is now gone because of the uncertainty of RGIII's health and his performance in the Philly game.

Wow sports journalists are fickle. 

I don't know if they take what Bob says in a microphone to be gospel or they've never watched football before, but it sure looked to me like he was a quarterback who was simply just getting his preseason snaps.  Say what you will about the Eagles defensive alignments in the second half, but lost in all of the RG-Knee talk was the fact that he ended up throwing for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns.  If you had told me before the game that that was going to be his stat line, I would've felt pretty good about it (2 picks aside).  Bob is fine.  Now if he lays another egg at Green Bay, I wonder what the excuse will be, but now that he has a preseasons worth of snaps under his belt, and he's not running scared of being hit (he looked so much more comfortable on the move in that 4th quarter), I bet you get a full 60 minutes out of him.  That being said, the big unknown in this game is in the secondary. 

The best news I heard this week is that Ryan Kerrigan does NOT have a concussion.  Boy is that a relief because without him and Orakpo to work the edges, I don't know if we have any resemblance of a pass rush.  Give Rodgers all day and he will simply cut you to pieces.  Throw in an inexperienced and developing secondary, guys like Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley, and James Jones (at least he better!) are pretty solid fantasy plays this week.  Throw on top of that a Green Bay team that absolutely will not accept an 0-2 start, the Redskins are ripe this week for a beating...UNLESS we come into Lambeau with the same sense of urgency the Packers are about going to 0-2. 

0-2 in the NFL isn't a death sentence (see Giants 2007-Super Bowl, Eagles 2003-NFC Championship), but it isn't a good place to be either.  Only about 10% of all the teams who have started 0-2 have ever come back to make the playoffs, not very good odds.  And considering that the Eagles have San Diego and the Cowboys have Kansas City, 0-2 probably means 2 games back in the division right off the bat.  The Shanahans know this, and all throughout practice this week they have to be force-feeding this to all 53 dudes on the roster. It doesn't get any easier after Green Bay with a resurgent Detroit squad in week 3, Oakland (OK...that will be a win...famous last words), and at Dallas coming off the bye. 

Here's why the Redskins will win: Alfred Morris will get his touches in the first half, the offensive line will remember how to zone block like they did last year, and the Redskins will chew clock in the first half keeping Rodgers and Co. on the sideline.  Winning the time of possession will embolden RGIII to another big day and while Rodgers will get his numbers like he did last week, he just won't have the ball enough.

Here's why the Redskins will lose: Green Bay watches video of the Eagles games, uses a breakneck pace to tire out the offense, the Redskins go down early, everyone feels sorry for themselves, lose their sense of urgency, Morris gets less than 15 touches, and it's a repeat of the Philly game as RGIII gets his stats in garbage time.

Final score prediction: Redskins 31 Packers 30

My other picks for the week my pick in CAPS:

Miami @ INDIANPOLIS (-3)
Kansas City @ DALLAS (+3)
St. Louis @ ATLANTA (-7)
MINNESOTA (+6) @ Chicago
CAROLINA (-3) @ Buffalo
Cleveland @ BALTIMORE (-7)
Tennessee @ HOUSTON (-10)
San Diego @ PHILADELPHIA (-7.5)
DETROIT (-2) @ Arizona
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
JACKSONVILLE (+6) @ Oakland
DENVER (-4.5) @ New York Giants
SAN FRANCISCO (+3) @ Seattle
PITTSBURGH (+7) @ Cincinatti

Fatties Figure, what say you?