Irene Comes A Callin'

We're talking hurricanes today at Caputo's Corner.  2 days after the strongest earthquake this area has felt in decades, we get a 1-2 punch of potential natural disasters with the impending arrival of Hurricane Irene.  Irene is the first hurricane to significantly threat this part of the United States since Isabel in 2003.  Irene and Isabel do have some significant differences, both in terms of intensity and track.  The latest forcasts call for Irene to make essentially a direct hit on the lower North Carolina shore, which would be very bad news for towns like Wilmington, Surf City, and the Outer Banks.  As of this posting, the only watches and warnings are in North Carolina and South Carolina, but that will change very soon to be sure.  It will not be long before the Virginia Coast and pretty much the entire Delmarva Peninsula.  For more information on how this hurricane will affect the Eastern Shore, check out Dustin Holt's outstanding work for the Easton-Cambridge Star Democrat. 




Lower Atlantic satellite view of Hurricane Irene as of 2:45PM on August 25th


So here are the specifics on what kind of a punch Irene is packing.  The maximum sustained winds are at 115 mph, which is the bottom of category 3 status.  The real kicker though is that the minimum pressure (the better measure of a hurricane's strength) is only 951 mb.  What that means is that it is not out of the question for this thing to get even stronger prior to landfall.  The intensity of the hurricane by the time it reaches this area (and New England for that matter) is highly dependent on the track.  If you look at the cone of uncertainty on the NOAA website, the westernmost track, is almost entirely over land.  What that would mean is that Irene is a huge rainmaker, but the winds would die down almost instantaneously.  The easternmost track would keep the center over water, which would most likely spare the coastal regions of severe damage, but outer rain bands would still produce very squally weather.  The forecast track right now has the center essentially hugging the coast.  This really would be the worst case scenario for the coast.  The storm would gradually weaken as it is not over open waters, but the weakening would be very slow.  Also, given the fact that the storm is increasing in forward speed (and beginning to take a slight turn to the north-northeast), Irene could very well still be a hurricane by the time it reaches Long Island and the southern New England coast.  AccuWeather is predicting that the storm will be the worst hurricane event New England has seen in over 50 years. 

What does this mean for us now.  Watches and warnings for the entire Atlantic coast from North Carolina all the way to Boston are either already in effect or are imminent.  If you live in coastal areas, you should already be taking steps to prepare and evacuate if necessary.  If you live in flood-prone areas, get to higher ground.  If you live inland (mostly west of the Chesapeake Bay), get ready for a breezy and rainy day on Saturday and Sunday (with some strong gusts), but the worst of the storm will most likely stay to the east.  Nevertheless, I just received an automated call from BGE reminding me essentially to batten down the hatches.  Power outages are a very real possibility, especially with the potential of strong gusts and downed trees.  Keep a close eye on this storm.  School starts on Monday.  You can't imagine that they'd be rooting for a hurricane-day would you?