Preseason Snow Forceast

Yes, folks, that's right.  There's no better way to beat the August heat than to talk about the white stuff.  That's what I always say...but not really.  I hate snow.  I will always take sweltering heat in the summer over frozen precipitation.  You can beat the heat with air conditioning, ice, and hydration.  If there's 3 feet of snow on the ground (those of us who recall the blizzards of 09 and 10 sure know this), a region is brought to its knees.  3 times that winter (twice in one week) massive blizzards dropped record snowfalls for the Baltimore Washington region.  Last winter was also very active, but barely registered a whimper compared to the previous year.  This year, AccuWeather.com has posted its "preseason" forecast.  They basically say that a weak La Nina in the Pacific will lead to a similar pattern across the Midwest and East Coast like we had last season. 

La Nina is when the east-central Pacific Ocean has cooler than average sea surface temperature.  The Blizzards of 2010 (as is the case with most blizzards that affect this part of the country) were caused by a strong El Nino (Pacific warming).  Warmer water leads to more evaporation.  This excess moisture leads to clouds.  Prevailing winds in that part of the world carry those clouds across the southern tier of North America where these storm systems interact with warm air and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  Then they turn north where (in the Winter) temperatures are colder.  Put all of those ingredients together and PRESTO: blizzards.  During a La Nina event, the origination of storm systems mostly comes from Western Canada, where the air is colder, but also dryer.  Most systems that come from Canada are known as "Alberta clippers."  They are fast (hence the name "clipper") so they don't drop a lot of snow, but depending on the moisture level of the storm, they can still drop somewhere in the neighborhood  3-6 inches. 

I think this Winter will be about normal and even (hopefully) below normal in terms of actual snowfall.  One of these years we'll get through a Winter without any lost school days.  It probably won't be this one, but for now I'll enjoy the few days we have left in the sauna that is August.