Oh look, Daddy...the Circus is in Town!

...oh wait that's just the Republican presidential debate in Iowa. 

I have to say that I have paid only token attention to this sideshow since it started.  After all, by the time it gets to Maryland, there is a 99% chance that it will already have been decided.  I don't really feel like being long-winded on this subject, but I do have a few comments, and knowing me, this post will end up a bit longer than it should be. 

Tonight is the final GOP debate in advance of the Iowa Caucus, sponsored by the bastion of conservative blasphemy Fox News Channel.  This debate is the candidates' last chance to impress the attendees of the friendly meetings that will be taking place on January 3rd.  January 3rd...the general election isn't until November.  The year 2012 will be chock full of primaries, elections, debates, conventions, delegates, superdelegates, and these.  By the way, in case you were not so completely riveted by this whole deal, here's what else will be taking place in 2012:

Olympics in London
Leap year
Birthdays, graduations, anniversaries, and other important personal celebrations
The end of the Mayan calandar (Exactly one year from next Monday actually)

That's just a sample of some of the major things that will make 2012 a special year, so the populace will have plenty to keep themselves distracted.  The election process will attempt to supplant all of these events for media airtime, and states will attempt show off how important they are by having their primary before everyone else. 

The Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary historically have been "first in the nation" because that's just how it always has been.  Everybody though that was fine and dandy until they started to get fed up with all the media trucks quadrennially decending on these two states that really don't mean much when it comes to delegates.  "Big" states like Florida and New York want their primaries to matter more so they set the dates for their primaries earlier and earlier and earlier.  However, Iowa and New Hampshire didn't like that, so much so that they actually wrote legislation mandating that their electoral events be first in the nation...MANDATING IT!  This is all nuts.  First off, what makes Iowa and New Hampshire that special that their primaries HAVE to be first?  After all, their states really are insignificant when it comes to nominating the candidate.  Like the general election, big states such as New York, Texas, and California ultimately will decide the winner.  Nevertheless, whoever wins in Iowa and New Hampshire seems to gain momentum going forward, and that influences primary voters in other states ("Well, [candidate X] won New Hampshire, I guess he's going to be the guy.").  Since my state's primary usually doesn't matter (especially on the Republican side), I don't really take too much offense that Maryland does not play a huge role in nominating the candidate. 



Gingrich (from newt.org)

 Speaking of the Republicans, it has been a whacky roller coaster of who's on first.  One week it's Mitt Romney.  Then, Michelle Bachmann wins a straw poll in Iowa giving her an edge.  Then it's Romney again as Bachmann (the Tea Party candidate) gets bashed by the establishment.  Then it's Romney again.  Then, Herman Cain and his 9,9,9 plan seems to gain some momentum, but all you have to do is dig up a sexual harassment skeleton in his closet and the next thing you know he's yesterday's news.  Now it's Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, who seems to be the strong frontrunner.  Gingrich has a checkered history (cheated on his wife), but in the aftermath he cleaned up his act, found religion, and is very honest about his past (thus taking away potential ammunition from his opponents).  Nevertheless, surely in the debate tonight there will be several character assaults on Gingrich.  Why, do you ask?  Because he is the front runner, and the rest of those crybabies are going to whine like somebody spilt their milk.  However, Gingrich does have one very important feather in his cap.  As Speaker, he led the Republican Congress of the 90s (yes, with Bill Clinton as president) toward a balanced budget thanks to the Contract with America...and actually paying down the national debt instead of pumping it up exponentially.  He did it through a series of...gasp!...spending cuts!  It seems like common sense that if you don't spend what you don't already have, it's very easy to save money and pay off debts.  As a result, Gingrich looks like he would be a fine candidate to at least give Obama a run for his money in November.  Don't underestimate the rest of the field, though.  Romney got beat by McCain in 2008, so I'm sure in his mind he feels like it's "his turn," considering Bush beat McCain in 2000.  It's cyclical don't you know...

At the end of the day, whoever ends up being the Republican nominee is going to have one tall hill to climb against Barack Obama and his machine.  Obama already has a warchest well into the hundreds of millions of dollars...and he doesn't have any primary opposition.  Whoever ends up being the nominee cannot play this political game of running to the center to try to make everybody happy.  That wishywashy attiude will not give voters a clear choice, so they will probably go with the incumbent.  The nominee has to run on CONSERVATIVE principles to give voters a viable alternative to Obama.  If they do not, the result will be easy to figure out.