The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Sqauadron of the 403rd wing of the Air Force Reserve command, based out of Biloxi, MS (also known as the Hurricane Hunters), better have a lot budgeted for fuel over the next few weeks. They are going to have a lot of flying to do. Some of the best and most accurate data on tropical cyclones are collected by these flights. The way it works is the flight makes two passes through the center of the storm, flying in a star-like pattern. This way they reach all of the corners of the storm, gaining information about minimum pressures, wind speeds, and cloud temperatures, as well as identifying where the roughest weather can be found in the storm. The inside of the plane (you can see the outside of one on the 403rd wing website) has some of the most complex weather data instrumentation in the buisness, and for the last month, they have been pushed to the limit. Right now there are 3...count 'em...3 named tropical cyclones currently churning in the Atlantic.
First we have Katia, which we have detailed extensively here at Caputo's Corner. It looks like Katia will miss everything (thankfully). Tropical storm advisories are in effect for Bermuda, but it looks like from its current cone that the cyclone is getting caught in the jet stream and will be taken out to sea rapidly. The only threats from Katia come in the form of strong rip currents and high surf. However, the storm does not appear to be weakening very rapidly, despite an increased shear environment and progressively cooler waters. This is due to what is called "baroclinic forcing" as the storm approaches Greenland. As a result, it will lose all of its tropical characteristics, ceasing to be a hurricane. Yet, it will still have powerful winds and rain, and believe it or not, the British Isles may be in for some rough weather in a few days.
Our next friend is Nate. Nate is a newcomer to the party, just getting a name this afternoon. Right now, Nate is in the Bay of Campeche, just off the west coast of the Yucatan. Nate is practically stationary, as are most cyclones that form in the Gulf of Mexico. Ordinarily, stationary storms do not intensify quickly, as most of the warm surface water is quickly convected into the storm, leaving cooler deep water underneath. However, Nate is forecast to not only last for a long period of time despite the near stationary motion, but even intensify to at least a Category 1 hurricane! The east coast of Mexico is in for a rough ride if this forecast holds true, which is bad news for Texas which could really use the rain right now.
One area of the country that most definitely does NOT need rain right now is the Mid Atlantic. Check out this video of Main Street Ellicott City (an area historically very prone to severe flooding due to its location in the valley next to the Patapsco River) from this afternoon!
This video was posted by several friends of mine on Facebook, but I digress. My focus is on Tropical Storm Maria, currently located in the middle of the Atlantic. This storm is kind of a good news/bad news situation. Maria is another typical Cape Verde type cyclone. These are the storms that have a tendency to rapidly intensify into major Hurricanes (like Irene and Katia). Let's start with the good news. Maria is entering a very high shear environment. Stiff upper atmospheric winds will prevent the cyclone from intensifying into a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast currently has Maria at tropical storm strength as far out as 5 days. That is definitely good news. Here's the bad news. The track of Maria is eerily similar to the track that Irene took in the days before it hooked up toward the east coast. The Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas look like they are in the path of this thing projecting out a few days. After the hits they took from Irene, they thought they were out of the woods when Katia hooked past them. Unfortunately, they may not be so lucky with Maria. The difference between the tracks of Katia and Maria is the original position. Katia started further to the north than Maria, so Katia was able to take a much sharper turn as opposed to Maria (and Irene), which looks to take a much wider turn. This wide turn puts more land masses under threat. As the video above shows, the remants of Lee are already doing a number on an area that does not need any more rain. There is just nowhere for all of this water to go. It is still well too early to say for certain where Maria will actually make the turn, but just like with every other tropical cyclone that has formed in the Atlantic so far, it bears very close watching.
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