Tuesday, September 6, 2011

New Tropical Depression Forms in the Atlantic

Just when you think we're out of the woods with Katia forecast to make the classic northeasterly hook missing both Bermuda and the East Coast...we have some more company.


As you can see, the tropics are not slowing down any time soon as the African wave train rolls along.  The mathematical peak of Hurricane Season is September 15th, so we still have a long way to go.  As you can see from this satellite photo, TD 14 (soon to be "Maria") is a very large cyclone, which could prevent it from strengthening too much, but the bad news is that the areas that were spared by Katia look like they are in the the firing line from Katia's wake.  Check out the current cone from the NHC.  It looks like the Greater Antillies and Puerto Rico (two areas that were hit hard by Irene) are in trouble forecasting several days ahead.  This system is taking a much more southerly track very similar to Hurricane Irene (whereas Katia started off a little further to the north).  That is bad news for all of the areas that were hit hard by Hurricane Irene (including the DC area).  The NHC admits that it is still way too soon (especially since this depression is brand new) to be making track predictions like that, but all of the areas that were hit hard by Irene (and Lee afterward) definitely do NOT want to see any more tropical weather in their future.  Needless to say, this system bears close monitoring over the next few days. 

Elsewhere, there are still 2 more areas (shaded in yellow and orange) that the NHC is watching for potential cyclone development.  The area in orange located in the Bay of Campeche is nearly stationary, so this will be slow to develop (if at all), and if it moves north perhaps this will provide Texas with much needed drought relief.  The rest of the Gulf coast already got their drought relief with Lee and is not in any mood for any more tropical storms.  The area in yellow is a rather small disturbance, but outflow from Katia and pressure from soon-to-be Maria close behind should prevent this system from developing any time soon. 

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