Tropical Update from Caputo's Corner

Now that Irene is history, we can focus on what else is going on in the tropical Atlanic Ocean, and it is quite active.  The system I have my sights set on right now is Katia, but there are a couple other systems that are worth noting.  First, here is the current map of the Atlantic basin from the National Hurricane Center (as of 8AM today).  As you can see, there is a lot to talk about:

We'll deal with katia in just a minute.  The red circle nearby Bermuda is a system that at the moment is producing tropical storm force winds, but lacks a closed, warm core circulation (the defining characteristic of a tropical cyclone).  Until that happens, it's just a strong low pressure system, but the good news is that this thing is taking the path as Jose last week.  There are slight impacts on Bermuda, but it is moving north toward colder waters, so development, if any, will be short-lived.  Atlantic Canada could be in for some more soaking rain after what it took from Irene, but I don't think another tropical storm is in their future. 

In the Gulf of Mexico, you see that we have Tropical Depression 13 (systems don't get names until they are tropical storms).  Right now it is a race between TD 13 and the system near Bermuda as to which one will get the name "Lee."  If both get a name, the second name will be "Maria."  TD 13 might be just what the doctor ordered for the Gulf Coast, which is in a very prolonged drought.  It looks like it will make landfall between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle, but should be large enough to provide some drought relief to Texas as well.  The only question is whether or not too much rain will fall at once.  If the rain falls faster than the ground can absorb it, major flooding can happen.  Nevertheless, they could use the rain, without any of the other side effects of tropical systems as this area knows all too well.

Of course, all eyes are on Katia.  There are so many variables right now in the forecast track of this storm, I don't even know if the experts at the NHC have any idea where it is going next.  There was some good news last night as some southwesterly shear temporarily weakened Katia below hurricane status, albeit only temporarily.  This shear environment will keep Katia from intensifying too rapidly, but the forecast is still for Katia to eventually reach major hurricane status.  All of the reading I've done so far has mentioned that Bermuda could be in for a hit, but I'm not so sure about that.  I mean, look at this cone and you tell me if Bermuda is in any immediate danger. 

























To their credit, forecasters did anticipate this.  All along, Katia has been riding to the south of the "Azores High," a high pressure area keeping Katia to the south as it moves west (as it does for most Cape Verde cyclones).  The forecast had been for a weakness in the high pressure (due to a trough in the jet stream) to pull Katia north.  The only question was when that would happen.  However, forecasters had acknowledged that if a cyclone formed in the Gulf of Mexico (as it now has), it could significantly affect the track.  Notice that the 5-day track is more due west than north.  As it stands, Florida and Georgia (which avoided a major hit from Irene) could be in the bullseye.  Of course there is so much else that can happen still over a week away from any sort of landfall.  What is happening is that the low pressure from TD 13 is drawing Katia towards it, almost like a vacuum.  This explains the projected due west motion later in the forecast period.  However, how fast will TD 13 move out of the Gulf?  Right now it is nearly stationary.  The behavior of TD 13 could very well have a major impact on where Katia will make any sort of landfall.  Bottom line: nobody from Florida to Canada to Bermuda should let their guard down.

As Katia makes a closer landfall approach, we'll of course have more analysis right here as Caputo's Corner covers Hurricane Season. 

UPDATE (2:00PM on 9-2): TD 13 has officially been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee

UPDATE (6:00PM on 9-4) As you can see on the latest track map, Katia is now being forecast to hook between the Outer Banks and Bermuda