Week 3 Record: 7-8 (22-23 overall)
Lattanzi's Week 3 Record: 9-7 (31-17 overall)
AK's Week 3 Record: 14-2 (25-6 Overall)
So as my backside gets mule-kicked in the race for the best NFL prognosticator in the blogosphere, I sit here and reflect about lots of things. First, this is why I don't have a job working for ESPN or NFL Network. I think I know what I'm talking about when it comes to football (AK would disagree, but he disagrees vehemently with everyone...because that's what he does). This is why I came to be a science teacher for a living. I'm doing good work that serves a bigger purpose. It's got its good days and bad days, just like any job would, but hey I like what I do. I always have. This is far more rewarding than a .500 record predicting NFL games. While I don't know if I'll be in a classroom by the time I'm 50, I do know I will not be sitting on an HD set in Bristol, CT at ESPN or Mount Holly, NJ working at NFL Films, if my ability to pick games is any indication.
Then again, stranger things have happened. You play to win the game, right?
Hello?
Let's keep at it this week and take a look at who I got in week 4.
Carolina @ Chicago-Cam Newton's real coming out party was not quite the offensive explosion he had against the Cardinals and Packers, but he did get his first real win. This week, he gets his first real crack at a real defense. So I doubt we'll see video game like numbers, but that doesn't mean the Panthers will submit to the Bears that easily. Remember, Jay Cutler is the Bears' quarterback. This one will be low(er) scoring, but entertaining. Chicago 26 Carolina 16
Buffalo @ Cincinnati-Letdown game? Perhaps. Buffalo just came off one of the biggest upset wins in team history, coming back from 3 touchdowns down to beat New England in the final seconds, their second such win in as many weeks. These guys have got to be spent, so you have to figure a weaker team like Cincinnati will be ready to pounce. Cincinnati hasn't been that bad if you think about it. They haven't been good either, but an emotionally and physically drained Buffalo team might be just what the doctor ordered. Cincinnati 17 Buffalo 16
Tennessee @ Cleveland-Cleveland is raising some eyebrows at 2-1 as is Tennessee. However, of the 4 victories between them, Tennessee has the highest profile win (Baltimore), and Cleveland has beaten Indy sans-Manning and what looks to be a vastly overrated Miami team. Bottom line: somebody is coming out of this game at 3-1 who shouldn't supposed to be. Tennessee 21 Cleveland 20
Detroit @ Dallas-Dallas is coming off of a draining win against Washington on Monday night while Detroit is fresh off of comeback win over Minnesota. Jason Garrett has said all week that 6 field goals will just not be enough to beat a Detroit team that knows how to finish now. 6 field goals is the same as 3 touchdowns (sans the extra points). That's about what I see Dallas getting, but Detroit has now proven its offense is much better than that. Detroit 31 Dallas 21
Minnesota @ Kansas City-Ah yes, the old battle of the 0-3 bowl. Neither one of these teams has proven to be any good, and once again Minnesota burned me last week in my upset pick. Surely they have the ability to beat Kansas City, right? Maybe this is the week Leslie Frazier realizes that he can run Adrian Peterson for 4 quarters instead of just 2. Minnesota 24 Kansas City 10
San Francisco @ Philadelphia-The Dream Team catches somewhat of a break when San Fran comes east for a 1PM game. Are the Eagles way overrated? If they lose this game, heads might start rolling all the way down Broad Street. As much as I'd like to see it, Philly can't afford to fall to 1-3 for a myriad of reasons, and it won't happen in this game, but it won't be pretty either, with either Kafka or Vick. Philadelphia 23 San Francisco 9
New Orleans @ Jacksonville-Playing on natural grass might slow the Saints express by a half a step, not that that really slowed them down at all in Green Bay on Opening Night. As AK would say, "lay what you have to." New Orleans 38 Jacksonville 14
Pittsburgh @ Houston-This is a very intriguing matchup. Houston can put up big numbers, but Pittsburgh already had their defensive letdown of the season at Baltimore. Houston got a lot of bounces to go their way in New Orleans, but they still gave up 40 points and lost. Pittsburgh will make sure they don't get half of that. Andre Johnson will be kept in check, and no Foster means no problem for Pitt. Pittsburgh 28 Houston 17
New York Giants @ Arizona-The Giants' M*A*S*H unit found a way make amends for last season's collapse against the Eagles last week at the Clink at the Linc. Yet, it still cannot be ignored that the Giants are missing so many key players on defense. Aaron Ross is back, but was highly criticized for the way he played. Most likely he will be assigned to Larry Fitzgerald, so if he plays like he did in Philly, Fitz might have a game for the fantasy record books. Arizona 28 New York Giants 23
Atlanta @ Seattle-The good news for Atlanta is that this game will be on artificial turf (we all know how bad Matt Ryan is on natural grass...fantasy grumble). The bad news is that this game is in Seattle...oh that's right...SUNNY Seattle. Doesn't take away from the fact that the Seahawks are just plain bad, and they still won last week. Go figure. Atlanta 35 Seattle 28
Denver @ Green Bay-Don't really see any reason here why Green Bay will lose. They are at home. Denver stinks. Aaron Rodgers is a fantasy prince, and Clay Matthews still needs a haircut. Green Bay 38 Denver 20
New England @ Oakland-The Buffalo Bowl! In the last two weeks, both of these teams have choked away big leads in Buffalo. You think they have been comparing notes...or videotapes? New England is still a juggernaut, and you have to think that Brady will not throw 4 picks again. Oakland got a big win against the Jets, but can it do it again against what arguably is a better defense (I said "arguably," Kent, not factually...just relax there buddy). New England 45 Oakland 21
Miami @ San Diego-Miami is overrated, and San Diego played it too tight to the vest last week in only beating KC by 3. Miami is not much of a step up in competition from the Chiefs, but they have shown they can be better on offense. I'm not saying they will be, but San Diego will open up the playbook just a little bit more here. San Diego 31 Miami 13
New York Jets @ Baltimore-Another cage fight in Charm City as Rex Ryan comes back. Don't expect a lot of points, but do expect a lot of sacks, interceptions, fumbles, late hits, trash talk, angry referees, and references Rex Ryan's tattoo. OK, so maybe not the last one, but you should watch this one for pure entertainment value alone. One touchdown wins it, and this really is the flip of a coin. Baltimore 16 New York Jets 13
Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay-Neither one of the prime time games this week looks to feature a lot of offense. The big question in this one is whether or not Reggie Wayne gets his wish and Curtis Painter gets the start. Josh Freeman is a beast and is living up to the potential that I saw in Tampa when I picked them to win over Detroit (the one they lost) only to pick against them twice (both wins). One of the two, JP or AK, will not be happy after this one. Tampa Bay 19 Indianapolis 15
Alright, blogosphere...let's get on the record.
Carolina @ Chicago (-6.5): Chicago is reeling. After shocking Atlanta - and the football-viewing world - in their home opener, they've been outscored 57-30 by two of the most established QBs in the NFL. In comes one of the least established, Carolina Cam and his Panthers, who gave Green Bay a scare before winning their last game against their fellow southeastern cats in Jacksonville last week. Take the points: Carolina will keep it close. However, that unBearable o-line for Chicago will keep Jay Cutler upright just long enough to get Matt Forte some screen passes he can house, moving Da Bears to 2-2.
ReplyDeleteBuffalo (-3) @ Cincinnati: The best team in the AFC East takes the highest scoring offense in the NFL - which I've dubbed the Smartest Show On Turf, on account of their Ivy League quarterback - on the road to the NFL's resident dumpster fire. Cedric Benson is gearing up for his time in the State Pen, surely as Jerome Simpson is. There's no way Buffalo doesn't blow them out. Lay what you need to.
Tennessee @ Cleveland (Pick 'Em): A surprising 2-1 Browns team hosts a not-so-surprising 2-1 Titans squad with the Eighth Wonder of the Ancient World at quarterback. Even more surprising is that this game is a pick 'em. If I get to pick 'em, I'm taking the Titans.
Detroit @ Dallas (-1.5): Another confusing line here. I know you get 3 points for being at home in the NFL, but Dallas is banged up and is every bit the luckiest 2-1 team I've ever seen. If two plays go differently - let's be honest, the way Tony Romo plays usually go - they're 0-3 and Jason Garrett's head is on Jerry Jones' chopping block. Take the points and the Lions on the moneyline - somebody's 4-0 for the first time since I think I've been alive.*
*Absolutely _no_ research went into making this assertion, making it apropos to Caputo's Corner.
Minnesota (-2.5) @ Kansas City: If Dallas is the worst 2-1 team in the NFL, the Vikings are the best 0-3 team. They've led in all of their games by as many as 49 points (again, no research to back this assertion), only to give up massive comebacks. Fortunately for them, the Chiefs have no capacity to come back. Lay whatever your sportsbook number is, because the Vikes are gonna get off the schneid and set sail in celebration for the first time this year.
San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-9.5): This is a huge number. San Fran has only lost once, but it isn't for lack of trying. They beat two terrible teams (Seattle and Cincy) and until Romo did the un-Romo-able had the worst 2-1 dead to rights. Still, Filthadelphia is reeling as hard as the Bears are. Vick is banged up (like I've said he would be since time immemorial) and their defense can't tackle. The funniest play I've seen in awhile occured when two Iggles DBs collided trying to tackle some Giant wide receiver of whom I'd never heard (Penelope Cruz? Victor Hugo? Something like that...). I like Philly to win, but just for shits and giggles I say the Niners keep it close, so take the points.
New Orleans (-7.5) @ Jacksonville: The Survivor Pick of the Week. New Orleans is cooking with gas after coming up short against the World Champs (of the [non-inter]National Football League). The beat a Texans team that's on the come in a shootout in the Underwater Dome. Now they pay a visit to Jacksonville and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, fresh off of giving Carolina Cam his first win of the season. Lay the points, because the Brees-to-Meachem hook-up is gonna be off the hook, or something.
ReplyDeletePittsburgh @ Houston (-3.5): Game of the week candidate #1. The Stillers got "beaten up" by the Manning-less Colts' defense, but snuck outta Indy on a Mayflower van with a last-second field goal victory. Houston lost the aforementioned shootout in the City by the Bay - er, the City by the Ninth Ward (Is it too soon for these Katrina jokes?). They'll be fired up and coming home, ready to chuck it and duck it against a Blitzburgh secondary that, according to your sagacious commentator, has been overrated (outside of that dude with the hair) for a decade. Still, I can see this one being a field goal game, so take the points and the Texans to win.
New York Giants (-1.5) @ Arizona: Some of these lines make me think Vegas isn't watching the NFL this year. Arizona stinks - yeah, I know they almost beat the Redskins, but they also almost beat the Shehawks. The G-Men win it going away, on the capable legs of Ahmad Bradshaw.
Atlanta (-4.5) @ Seattle: The Dirty Birds, like their Filthadelphia kin, are struggling, having lost to the scrappy Buccaneers of Tampa Bay. What better tonic than storming into Qwest Field and taking out their frustrations on the Fightin' Weasel Carrolls? Lay the points. Atlanta wins big.
Denver @ Green Bay (-12.5): I think this game started at 15, but the sharps worked it down to 12.5. Still, Denver stinks and Green Bay are the champs. Lambeau will be rocking, and the Packers will be rolling. Lay the big number.
New England (-5.5) @ Oakland: Game of the week candidate #2. Oakland has caught the NFL by surprise. The defense they face is arguably the shittiest in the NFL, and is certainly the shittiest of any of the contenders. Even a Patriots fan wouldn't argue the Cheaters' defense is any good. Only five NFL teams have given up more points than New England - one of which is the Raiders, so expect a shootout. Also expect Oakland to win outright in a revenge game in the Black Hole some 10 years in the making. That was a fucking fumble!
Miami @ San Diego (-7): Miami isn't as bad as their record indicates. San Diego is probably worse than their record indicates. They're 2-1 with a -4 point differential. I have NO confidence in the Chargers' ability to beat the number. They win, but it'll be close, so take the points.
ReplyDeleteNew York Jets @ Baltimore (-4): A revenge match from last year's Monday Night opener. The Ravens escaped Giants Stadium with a 10-9 victory then. This year, the Shit 'Stache will light up the vulnerable Ballimer secondary, giving Nick at least SOMETHING in that fleecing of a trade he agreed to with me. San Antonio scores a couple times as the Jets win outright (so for those that don't know, take the points).
Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay (-10): Again, this line makes me think Vegas hasn't watched football. The Colts, along with the Vikings, are the most competitive 0-3 team in the NFL. Little needs to be said - we will treat Freeman like we treated Big Ben. The Cardiac Bucs get the win, but it won't be by ten. Take the points.
Washington (-2.5) @ St. Louis: To be fair to Les Mouflons, they're terrible outing thus far can be attributed to being decimated by injuries. That being said, this is kind-of a must win game if they have any sights on catching the Niners (check that one off on the list of things I never thought I'd say). They get a Redskins team reeling from being beaten by a guy that was basically paralyzed from the neck down (well, and his kicker). Through three games, Steven Jackson has a total of 6 carries (for an impressive 79 yards!), and is expected to be fully recovered and back just in time to pull a Tiki and run all over Washington. I'm going with the upset pick, and the Rams finally getting a win.