Last week:
Me: 8-5 (68-53 overall)
AK: 8-6 (68-32)
Lattanzi: MIA!!!
Lost last night's with the Chargers fully in free-fall mode. So let's make up for it with a perfect Sunday (and Monday) this week.
Buffalo @ Dallas-Buffalo laid an egg last week against the Jets, and for their efforts earn themselves a trip to JerryWorld where they can see themselves on TV! I can't decide what's worse, playing a game in Canada or in JerryWorld. Both Buffalo and the Redskins get to do that this year...and I know how I feel about both. Dallas is feeling pretty good after beating up inferior competition last week against Seattle (although it was not quite as 1-sided as the score would indicate). Buffalo is reeling and Dallas is surging...have to take the Boys, but it'll be close. Dallas 27 Buffalo 24
Tennessee @ Carolina-Unforunately for Carolina Cam, the Redskins and Jaguars don't appear on the schedule every week. Fortunately for them, this week they get a depleted Tennessee team still with a search party out to look for Chris Johnson. We keep waiting for him to finally have a huge game, but he just isn't delivering, and fantasy owners everywhere are scrambling to get whatever value for him they can in advance of trade deadlines. Let's take the Panthers this week...just because. Carolina 19 Tennessee 17
Houston @ Tampa Bay-The AFC South is Houston's division to lose at this point. This week is not necessarily a must win (it's outside the confernce), but still an important game to make sure they keep their distance over Tennessee. That's why I think they'll lose. Nonconference game, lots of separation, and Indy is no threat. They don't really have the motivation this week. Tampa needs it a lot more than Houston, and I see LeGarrette Blount having a huge game now that he's healthy and no Mario Williams to stop him. Tampa 28 Houston 21
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis-Even when Indy was really good, Jacksonville always provided a foible to them. Whether it was David Gararrd weaving through the defense, or a 60 yard field goal from Josh Scobee at the gun, Indy found ways to lose to Jacksonville. Now both teams are also-rans, Indy is at home, and they want to prove something. They can't go 0-16, and Jacksonville is as good a chance as any for them to win one...then lose out to draft Andrew Luck and trade Peyton to the highest bidder. Indianapolis 16 Jacksonville 12
Arizona @ Philadelphia-Just when you thought the Eagles would be back...thud! That sound you heard was the simultaneous plop of a million cheesesteaks when Philly woke up on Tuesday to the news that their birds were beaten by the Bears. Philly will win this week, because it's the Cardinals, but don't expect it to be pretty, or fun to watch. Lots and lots of punts, and probably a few missed field goals too. Philadelphia 13 Arizona 3
New Orleans @ Atlanta-Big game for both teams as they fight for the NFC South. New Orleans should be the pick here, but they are strikingly inconsistent on the road. We saw that when they lost to the Rams. Atlanta isn't much better, but they do have the home field. These teams are fairly evenly matched, so I see no reason not to take the standard home team by points here. Last second field goal wins it. More offense than usual, and highly entertaining. Atlanta 34 New Orleans 31
St. Louis @ Cleveland-Standard line for any game involving teams like this: zzzzzzZZZZZZZzzzzzzz. Who really is going to watch this? Go with the Rams because Bradford is due. St. Louis 21 Cleveland 16
Denver @ Kansas City-KC was Miami's first victim last week (good for the Skins because if Miami was 0-fer I would guarantee a Miami win this week), and Denver comes to town at 3-5, feeling pretty good because of Tebow, and only 1 game out of first in the AFC West (now 1.5 with last night's result). Expect a heavy dose of McGahee just like last week, and with no solid KC running game to back it up, Denver wins again. Denver 27 Kansas City 7
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati-Who would have thought Cincinnati would be right in the thick of the AFC North race? Cinci is the best team that nobody knows about, and Andy Dalton may be the best quarterback nobody has heard of. Pittsburgh is about to find out this week, and we're about to find out if the Bengals really are for real, as their schedule has been very favorable to their 6-2 record. Pittsburgh will be stinging after another last second loss last week to Baltimore. Considering who Baltimore's playing, this is a must win for either side. Cincinnati needs to prove something to me if I'm going to buy them contending for the division, so we go with Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh 24 Cincinnati 17
Baltimore @ Seattle-Now you can see the importance of the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game. However, just throwing it out there, Baltimore has had a history (especially this season) of really playing down to their competition on the road. Flacco has taken a lot of flak for not beating teams like Seattle that the Ravens should just slaughter. So keep that in mind as you make your money line bets this week. I'm taking the Ravens, but this is by no means my lock of the week. Baltimore 20 Seattle 16
Detroit @ Chicago-Chicago is fresh off of a big win over the Eagles, and the Lions are now starting to fade in the NFC North since it looks like Green Bay may never lose again. It's wild card or bust for either one of these teams. Chicago's got the home field, the cold weather, and the incentive to bring Detroit back down to earth so it will be interesting to see how the Lions respond. Stafford has not really played a true cold weather game yet this year. I'm not saying this will be the Ice Bowl 2.0, but Glass breaks a lot easier when it's cold outside. Get it? Matthew Glassford? Nevermind....Chicago 21 Detroit 14
Minnesota @ Green Bay-This game is in Lambeau, the Vikings proved to be one of the most overrated teams in the league, and I will not pick against the Packers until they give me a reason to, which right now is none. Green Bay 38 Minnesota 17
Alright...let's see how I do.
3 locks of the week;
ReplyDeleteTAKE PIT(-3.5) OVER CIN
TAKE BAL (-7.5) OVER SEA
TAKE N.E. (+1.5) OVER NY JETS
PUT DOWN $20 TO MAKE $130
- TOM AKA EXTREME TEAM
Your analysis sometimes baffles me, Nick. Houston doesn't have the motivation? They're on a three-game winning streak and are currently half a game out of the #1 seed in the AFC, trailing only Cincinnati. And the Colts haven't mattered since Peyton underwent neck surgery five games before the first Sunday of the season.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Detroit is "starting to fade"? Just because they were on bye last week doesn't mean they're incognito. Last time we saw them they were stomping a hole in Tim Tebow up at Mile High. They're only two games behind the Packers, and guess what? They still have two games against Green Bay left to play. I'm not sure what your definition of "starting to fade" is, but 6-2 with the third highest-scoring offense doesn't seem to fit the bill. Also, "Matthew Glassford" is yet another Kentism that has gone unattributed. I don't mind your use of my witticisms, but give credit where credit is due.
My picks will be up in a bit.
Buffalo @ Dallas (-4.5): The Bills aren't as bad as they looked last week (and anyway, that game was more about the Jets starting back to life), and Seattle is hardly a measuring stick against which to measure the Cowboys. This is a pretty good matchup, both teams playing for arguably the most competitive divisional title in their respective conference. I'm gonna take the road dog Buffalo to cover and win outright.
ReplyDeleteTennessee @ Carolina (-3.5): Carolina Cam and his Panthers couldn't string together a second consecutive win after hammering Washington, falling to the Pondering Vikes. They had a bye week to think about it, and now host the Titans, coming off a loss to the Bengals. Carolina turns it around and wins at home, but take the points because they're not that much better than Tennessee.
Houston (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay: Houston is on a tear, winning three straight, and are a half-game out of the top seed in the AFC. Moreover, they're doing this without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. It's all because of their fifth-best defense (based on scoring) and their third-rated running game (based on yards per game). They invade the New Sombrero intent on keeping pace with the AFC North representative in the race to homefield advantage. Take the points because the Bucs will keep it close, but Houston wins it.
Jacksonville (-3) @ Indianapolis: Colts win.
Arizona @ Philadelphia (-14): The Cardinals shit the bed in the second half in Baltimore a couple weeks ago, and then bounced back to beat the woeful Rams with a rare, 6-point walkoff OT TD. The erratic Eagles shit the bed Monday night against the Bears. This team is up and down like no other. We know they'll win, but the question is by how much. I'm gonna say Kolb keeps it close, so take the points.
New Orleans @ Atlanta (Pick'em): As reported here, the Saints are near-dreadful on the road and unstoppable at home, owning the Bucs three weeks after being owned by them. The Falcons have only lost at home to Green Bay and, like Houston, are surging on a three-game winning streak. Only half a game separates the two in the divisional hunt. I'm going with history and taking Atlanta at home.
St. Louis @ Cleveland (-2.5): This game is bullshit. Rams win.
Denver @ Kansas City (-3): Noone should be subjected to this garbage. Willis is talking about the running game and a Broncos win.
Pittsburgh (-4) @ Cincinnati: Game of the Day #1. The battle for the soul of the AFC North. Today, we find out if the Bengals and their remarkable rooks are real. They get to host this one, so they keep it close (take the points), but I think Pittsburgh bounces back from an impossible loss to the Ravens to win it.
Baltimore (-7) @ Seattle: Seattle is terrible. Ravens to win and cover, despite Joeverrated's best efforts.
ReplyDeleteNew York Giants @ San Fransisco (-3.5): Game of the Day #2, aka Game Nick Didn't Pick #1. The Niners still haven't proven they're serious contenders. The win at Philly no longer looks that good, and they've won close games at Detroit and Cincy, but otherwise they've beaten a bunch of bad teams (Seattle, Cleveland, Washington). The Giants, on the other hand, have thrown up a couple stinkers (losing to two of those Niners wins, Seattle and Washington), but they've beaten two of the leaders of the AFC East and are in firm control of their division. Like Houston, they've done it with myriad injuries throughout the year, and I don't see their momentum stopping. Again I'm taking the road dog to win outright.
New England @ New York Jets (Pick'em): Game of the Day #3, aka Game Nick Didn't Pick #2. It's worked the last two weeks (at least one half of it), so: Fuck those cheaters. Jets maim Brady, who breaks his leg on Bart Scott's shoulderpad.
Detroit @ Chicago (-2.5): Another great game. Both teams are coming off big wins and chasing Green Bay. The Lions still have two games with the Pack on the schedule, so they control their own future in the division hunt by winning out. The Bears have been keeping Cutler upright of late, but in come the fierce Lions D-line. Again, I'm going road dog to win as Detroit halts the Bears streak.
Minnesota @ Green Bay (-13.5): Green Bay, but the Pondering Vikings keep it within two scores, so take the points. Not much more analysis needed.
Washington @ Miami (-3.5): Miami is feeling good (much better than Washington) after getting their first win in a beatdown of the Chiefs. Now they get to host the rudderless Redskins who have no NFL quarterbacks on their roster. I just see their misery compounding, as Miami takes the opportunity to run up the score on a second consecutive Native American-mascoted also-ran. Do they play Florida State next week?
Oops...forgot two :-)
ReplyDeleteNew England @ New York Jets-Gotta like Brady here. See no reason why the Pats won't sweep. New England 31 Jets 20
New York Giants @ San Francisco-I like the niners here. Eli can't take the heat by the bay. San Francisco 24 Giants 20
From Nick!