So the owners and players "union" are meeting after all. Historically in pro sports labor, when two sides engage in "secret" negotiations, that usually means that something is getting done. They want to avoid outside distractions so they keep the meetings and their contents under wraps. They are still under a gag order by the magistrate judge who is mediating (as per Judge Nelson's order back from April). Nevertheless, they were meeting in Chicago last week and in an "undisclosed" location this week. Both sides are denying that negotiations are taking place, but Greg Aiello, league spokesman, admitted that "confidential" negotiations were underway and would continue.
What does all this mean? In the short term, it doesn't mean much. The two sides had been "negotiating" since before the lockout even started, and as far as we know, are still miles apart on how to split $9 billion (as well as the whole host of issues revolving around rookie pay scales and retiree benefits). The league seems content that an 18 game schedule is off the table for at least another couple years. However, the fact that the negotiations are "secret" or "confidential" (whatever word you prefer), indicates to me that something serious is going on. How serious? I don't know. I am still of the belief that both sides want the 8th Circuit Court to rule on the permanent stay of Judge Nelson's injunction order first before either side makes a move at the table. According to Judge Kermit Bye (the one judge who sided with the players in the 3 judge panel issuing the temporary stay), neither side will be happy if the Court has to make a ruling before any sort of deal is struck. Nelson said essentially the same thing in Minnesota, but eventually sided with the players.
The difference between the 8th Circuit Court in St. Louis and Nelson's federal district court in Minnesota is that the 8th Circuit has traditionally been more pro-buisness than the district court. Therefore, they would be much more receptive to the league's unfair labor practices claims than Judge Nelson or Judge Doty in Minnesota. It is impossible, however, to collectively bargain if there is no organized union against whom to bargain (as the NFLPA has constantly reminded us since March 11th). Perhaps the players realize that as long as the lean in the 8th Circuit favors the owners, their days are numbered since there is absolutely NO WAY this gets a Supreme Court nod (and even if it did, the only justice really they have to convince is Kennedy). Therefore, negotiations might be in their best interest. Training camp is supposed to open in less than 2 months, with the first preseason game shortly thereafter. It is getting dangerously close to crunch time for the players, who stand to lose the most if no season is played (regardless of any TV warchest the owners have built).
I'll believe a deal is done when I see it. When the 8th Circuit Court rules on the permanent stay of Nelson's injunction (and it will), that will determine the fate of at least the start of the 2011 season. If they rule to permanently stay the injunction, the season at the very least will be delayed. There's no way camps will open in time (barring the miraculous and a CBA being agreed upon between the owners and the pseudo-union). If the injunction is allowed to stand, the league will have to scramble to come up with a set of rules for free agency and other player transactions in the very limited free agency period there will be before camp opens. That does not mean that there will be limited player movement. The moment teams are allowed to make moves, you will see the entire deck shuffled. Then...crickets. Teams have been talking to each other since before the lockout began, so by now, most teams know what they want to do. So they'll do it and not waste any time so that they can have their rosters as much in place as possible before camp.
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