Death, Taxes...and Weathermen?

We all know that the first two items in the title of this post are the two things that nobody can live without (or escape), but I decided (for this post anyway) to add weathermen to that list.  Why?  I can pretty much summarize my feelings on weathermen in one sentence. 

They are always right when you want them to be wrong and they are always wrong when you want them to be right.

If you know me, you probably have heard me utter that sentence a time or two, and tonight is no exception.  As of last night (Tuesday), the forecast for Wednesday was "chance of wintry mix, little to no snow accumulation expected."  I went to bed  on Tuesday night fully expecting to go into work Wednesday.  The forecast for Wednesday afternoon was a little more dicey, so Thursday was the day I was expecting some kind of delay or closure, which if you believe the forecasts is still likely.  However, as I write this, the back edge of precipitation, according to radar, is moving over us now.  The county has all night to clean it up...don't throw those lesson plans in the trash just yet, teachers.  In any event, the point of this post is to rant about weathermen...the only profession where you can get fully paid, yet be wrong 90% of the time.  Unfortunately, you need to get your weather from somewhere, but being the science guy that I am, I usually take a look at data, and then come to my own conclusions.  Everybody tries to be the next Al Roker or Willard Scott, drives me nuts. 

None of this is to say that I don't totally avoid weather people at all costs.  For example, I am a fan of Joe Bastardi.  Most people discount him as nothing more than a vicious global warming skeptic, but if you watch his video blog, he relies heavily on data to make his long range predictions.  I am most interested in his tropical weather outlooks, but since we're not exactly in hurricane season, he focuses on seasonal winter forecasts.  This year he has called for one of the coldest winters in a long time across the nation, and it's hard to argue with him at this point in the season, just look outside.  On the local scene, Tom Tasselmyer is a pretty good, just the facts guy, and WBAL is pretty consistent with their predictions.  That being said, the number one weather source I turn to is your National Weather Service.  They are the ones who issue those watches, warnings, and advisories that turn on your emergency alert signals (when they're not making their weekly tests that are always more frequent than a week).  They use probabilistic forecasting, which makes some cringe, but I feel is mostly accurate.  They always err on the side of caution when issuing a weather product, so if there is a reason for concern, they will issue something.  If not, then I feel pretty confident that an all-clear is in order.  I'm especially a fan of Woody(!).  Why?  I don't know, but I enjoy reading his forecast discussions: short, sweet, to the point, and focused on data.  Yes, they often rely too much on the models, but hey, nobody's perfect. 

Let it snow...I guess.